32,600 New Planes Worth Nearly US$5 Trillion In
The Next 20 Years
June 16, 2015- From the world’s first commercial
flight in 1914, to today’s 32 million flights
annually, aviation has become part and parcel of
our everyday lives. With some three billion air
passengers, and 50 million tons of freight
carried every year by planes, it is estimated
that aviation contributes US$2.4 trillion
annually to global GDP.
In the next 20 years (2015-2034), according to
Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, global passenger
traffic will grow at an average 4.6% a year,
driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft
above 100 seats (31,800 passenger & 800
freighters greater than 10 tons) worth US$4.9
trillion.
By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will
more than double from today’s 19,000 aircraft to
38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter
aircraft will be replaced with more fuel
efficient types.
Emerging economies which collectively account
for six billion people, are the real engines of
worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8%
per year compared to more advanced economies,
like those in Western Europe or North America,
that are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8%.
Emerging economies also account for 31% of
worldwide private consumption which will rise to
43% by 2034. Economic growth rates in emerging
economies such as
China, India, Middle East, Africa and
Latin America will exceed the world
average. A knock on effect is that middle
classes will double to almost 5 billion people.
The tendency to travel by air is increasing. In
today’s emerging economies, 25% of the
population take one trip per year, and this will
increase sharply to 74% by 2034. In advanced
economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two
trips per year.
“Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034
and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market
within 10 years, and clearly
Asia and emerging markets are the
catalyst for strong air traffic growth,” said
John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer,
Customers. “Today, we are ramping up production
of the A350 XWB and we are studying further
production rate increases beyond rate 50 for
single aisle aircraft to meet the increasing
demand for air transportation.”
Long-haul traffic will increasingly be to, from or
between aviation mega-cities*, rising from 90% (0.9
million passengers a day) today to 95% (2.3 million
passengers a day) by 2034. Aviation mega-cities are
centres of urbanization and wealth creation and will
increase from 47 to 91 cities by 2034 with 35% of World
GDP centered there. These mega cities are already served
well by air transportation and the existing route
network will accommodate 70% of all traffic growth
between now and 2034.
In
the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards
higher capacity aircraft on long-haul and an
increasingly wide range of regional and domestic
sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for
some 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft
over the next 20 years, valued at some US$2.7 trillion.
This represents 30% of all new aircraft deliveries and
55% by value. Airbus will be especially well placed to
win a leading share of the widebody market, with the
A330, A350 and A380 representing the most modern and
comprehensive product line available today from 200 to
over 500 seats.
In
the single aisle market, where the A320 Family and the
latest generation A320neo Family are firmly established
as the global market leaders, the latest Airbus forecast
sees a requirement for nearly 23,000 new aircraft worth
US$2.2 trillion over the next 20 years, an increase of
nearly 1,000 aircraft compared to the previous forecast,
representing 70% of all new units and 45% of the value
of all deliveries.
Globally traffic growth has led to average aircraft size
‘growing’ by 46% since the 1980s with airlines selecting
larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs. Larger
aircraft like the A380 combined with higher load factors
make the most efficient use of limited slots at airports
and contribute to rising passenger numbers without
additional flights as confirmed by
London’s HeathrowAirport.
A focus on sustainable growth has enabled fuel burn and
noise reductions of at least 70 per cent in the last 40
years and this trend continues with innovations like the
A320neo, the A330neo, the A380 and the A350 XWB.
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